There are few exercises in hockey that make you look smarter in October and dumber by April than trying to predict an entire NHL season.
A team you think is ready to take a step forward suddenly gets terrible goaltending. A contender loses its best player for three months. Somebody nobody even had pencilled in for 35 goals scores 45.
That's also what makes doing this before the season starts worthwhile.
Rather than waiting until November to explain which teams I always knew were good, I wanted to put everything on the record before the first puck dropped: all four divisions from first through eighth, all 16 playoff teams, every playoff series, the Stanley Cup champion and the major individual awards.
I'm skipping projected point totals because pretending I know whether Utah will finish with 104 or 107 points doesn't add much. The order is what matters, and there are more than enough predictions here for me to answer for when we come back to this in the spring.
Here is how I see the 2026-27 NHL season playing out.
Atlantic Division
1. Florida Panthers
2. Montreal Canadiens
3. Ottawa Senators
4. Tampa Bay Lightning
5. Buffalo Sabres — WC2
6. Toronto Maple Leafs
7. Boston Bruins
8. Detroit Red Wings
There probably isn't another division where I like five teams as much as I like the top five here, although there is a pretty clear distinction between where I have them.
Florida remains the standard for me. Montreal is the team I'm prepared to be considerably more aggressive on, because I don't view the Canadiens as a young team hoping to hang around the playoff race anymore. I think they're good enough to spend the season near the top of this division, and I have them finishing ahead of Ottawa and Tampa Bay as a result.
The more interesting decision came further down.
I originally had Toronto fifth and Buffalo sixth, and the longer I looked at it, the less sense that made to me. Toronto should be better, but improvement from where the Maple Leafs were last season doesn't automatically mean a return to the playoffs. Buffalo is still the team I trust slightly more entering the year, despite the losses of Byram and Tuch, so the Sabres move into the final wild-card spot while Toronto finishes sixth and misses.
Toronto's additions to their bottom-six, as well as swapping out Matthew Knies in their top-six for Kirill Marchenko, and the debut of hyped first overall pick Gavin McKenna gives them a chance to return to the playoffs. Not to mention, they added Darren Raddysh on the back-end who scored 20 goals for the first time last season. I wouldn't be at all surprised if changing my mind here was a mistake.
As I touched on in my most recent piece with The Hockey News, the Bruins face a tough schedule where they will play a rested opponent while on the second night of a back-to-back more than any other team in the league. Combine that with what feels like an inevitable eventual down season for the Bruins, and I think this year is the year they unfortunately miss the playoffs.
Tampa Bay also makes it despite finishing fourth because I think the Atlantic takes both Eastern Conference wild cards. That leaves five teams from this division playing in April and squeezes the Metropolitan down to three.
Metropolitan Division
1. Carolina Hurricanes
2. Washington Capitals
3. New Jersey Devils
4. New York Rangers
5. Columbus Blue Jackets
6. Philadelphia Flyers
7. Pittsburgh Penguins
8. New York Islanders
Carolina remains the class of the division for me, but I think Washington is much closer to them than people might expect. The Capitals already had the depth to roll lines without giving opponents much of a break, and then they added Alex Tuch and Jordan Kyrou, two dynamic rush threats who give their attack another dimension. Cole Hutson also looks ready to become a major part of their blue line after an impressive introduction to the NHL last season.
Between those additions, the continued development of their younger players and just how deep this roster is from top to bottom, I think Washington has a legitimate chance to be one of the best teams in the East. I still have Carolina winning the division, but Washington finishing second isn't a reluctant pick for me. I think they're really good.
New Jersey rounds out my top three. There are enough pieces in place for the Devils to be one of the better teams in the conference, and while I don't have them quite on the same level as Carolina or Washington, I think there's a fairly clear separation between those three and the rest of the division.
The Rangers are where things get more interesting. Losing Vincent Trocheck matters, but I was initially too low on them because of it. This still isn't a roster I look at and see as one of the worst teams in the division. There's enough high-end talent here, particularly with Igor Shesterkin and Adam Fox, that a rebound into the playoff race makes considerably more sense to me than another season near the bottom.
Columbus might have the widest range of outcomes in the division. There has been plenty of change around the Blue Jackets, and the Zach Werenski situation adds another variable to a team that was already difficult to project. But there's also too much talent here for me to bury them. Werenski remains one of the best defensemen in hockey, and Columbus has enough young talent that a step forward wouldn't surprise me at all. I have them fifth, but I wouldn't be shocked if they're still playing meaningful games late in the season.
Philadelphia falls into a similar category. I don't necessarily think the Flyers are bad, but somebody has to get squeezed in a division where I see five teams with legitimate reasons to believe they can be pretty good. They're capable of hanging around the playoff race, but I don't quite have enough confidence in them to put them ahead of the Rangers or Columbus.
Pittsburgh is another team I'm hesitant to completely bury simply because we've been waiting for the age of its core to finally catch up with it for years. There will eventually be a season where that becomes impossible to ignore, and this might be it, but Sidney Crosby has made betting on an abrupt collapse feel foolish for a long time. I still think the Penguins can be competitive. I just have a harder time finding teams to put beneath them now.
That leaves the Islanders.
Matthew Schaefer changes the equation because he has already shown he can be the type of franchise defenseman capable of changing the trajectory of a team, and Ilya Sorokin gives the Islanders the kind of goaltending that can wreck any preseason prediction. Those two alone are enough to make me uncomfortable putting New York eighth.
But every division needs a last-place team, and when I compare the Islanders to everyone else in the Metro, they're the team whose path to significantly outperforming this prediction I have the hardest time seeing. The Rangers have too much high-end talent for me to put them at the bottom. Columbus has enough upside to take a meaningful step. Philadelphia should be competitive, and betting against Pittsburgh means betting against a core that has spent years refusing to disappear.
So the Islanders end up last, even though I don't think they're destined to be terrible. In a Metro where I don't see an obvious bottom-feeder, eighth could say more about the division than it does about the Islanders.
Central Division
1. Colorado Avalanche
2. Utah Mammoth
3. Dallas Stars
4. Minnesota Wild — WC1
5. St. Louis Blues
6. Chicago Blackhawks
7. Winnipeg Jets
8. Nashville Predators
If there is one division where I wouldn't be surprised to see the top four finish in almost any order, it is probably the Central.
Colorado gets my pick for first, but Utah is one of the teams I'm highest on entering this season.
What I like about the Mammoth isn't simply that they're young and should theoretically improve.
Their offseason additions give them more veteran stability and make them considerably more solid down the middle, which should make it easier for all of that young speed and skill to actually translate over a full season.
They don't need every young player on the roster to take a massive leap at once anymore.
I have Utah second, but I think there is a legitimate argument for them winning this division.
Colorado, Utah, Dallas and Minnesota should make this a very difficult four-team race, and I wouldn't expect much separation between them for long stretches of the season.
Dallas finishing third shouldn't be mistaken for me being down on the Stars, either. As will become fairly obvious once we get to the playoff bracket, I actually think this is finally their year.
Minnesota takes the first Western wild card, while St. Louis is the first Central team out.
Winnipeg in seventh is another placement that might look dramatic until you separate what the Jets have been historically from the situation they actually enter this season in. I'm not expecting the Central to give them much room to survive a down year, particularly with four teams at the top that I expect to be legitimately good.
Pacific Division
1. Edmonton Oilers
2. Vegas Golden Knights
3. San Jose Sharks
4. Anaheim Ducks — WC2
5. Los Angeles Kings
6. Calgary Flames
7. Seattle Kraken
8. Vancouver Canucks
This is probably where I'm making my biggest standings bet.
I have San Jose finishing third and making the playoffs, and that prediction isn't entirely about expecting some enormous overnight transformation from the Sharks. I think they're ready to take another step, but I also think the circumstances around Anaheim and Los Angeles create an opening for them to do it.
Anaheim still makes the playoffs in my prediction, but I don't love what surrounds the Ducks entering the season. The Cutter Gauthier negotiations could hang over the team early, and I think the departures of Jacob Trouba and Chris Kreider will matter more than simply subtracting their current on-ice value. Neither needs to be a game-breaking player at this stage for a young team to miss the combined veteran presence they brought to the room and lineup.
Los Angeles has a different problem.
Anze Kopitar's retirement means Quinton Byfield gets the opportunity to become a true first-line center, and I actually think Byfield may handle that responsibility pretty well. What I'm less convinced of is that there won't be an adjustment period.
There is a difference between having the talent to play high in an NHL lineup and spending every night across from the other team's best players while being expected to keep up offensively and remain responsible enough defensively to handle the hardest minutes on the team. Kopitar did that for so long that it became easy to take for granted. Byfield now has to learn to do it himself.
So my San Jose prediction is partly about two trajectories crossing. I think the Sharks are moving upward at exactly the same time Anaheim and Los Angeles encounter enough uncertainty to open the door.
Edmonton and Vegas remain the top two teams in the division, but San Jose grabs third. Anaheim survives for the final wild card, and Los Angeles is left just outside.
The Playoff Bracket
Once I had the standings finished, the playoff bracket became considerably easier.
Eastern Conference First Round
Florida over Buffalo Montreal over Ottawa Carolina over Tampa Bay Washington over New Jersey I don't have a major first-round upset coming out of the East. Buffalo getting back into the playoffs would represent a successful season in itself, but Florida is still too much for me to pick against there. Montreal gets through an all-Canadian series with Ottawa, while Carolina and Washington advance from the Metro side of the bracket.
Eastern Conference Second Round
Florida over Montreal Carolina over Washington This is where Montreal's run ends for me. I think they're ready to establish themselves as one of the better teams in the East, but there is still another level between being that and being ready to beat Florida four times in a playoff series.
Carolina gets through Washington on the other side, setting up the Eastern Conference Final I would probably most want to watch.
Eastern Conference Final
Carolina over Florida in seven games If we get Carolina and Florida with a trip to the Stanley Cup Final on the line, I don't expect much separating them.
I'm taking Carolina in seven. It would require getting through the team I still have finishing first in the Atlantic and surviving the type of series that could turn on one bounce late in Game 7, but I think the Hurricanes make it all the way back to the Final.
Western Conference First Round
Colorado over Anaheim Dallas over Utah Edmonton over Minnesota Vegas over San Jose San Jose's breakthrough doesn't need to include a deep playoff run for me to consider the prediction a success. Getting there is the leap I'm betting on. Once there, I still think Vegas is too much.
Utah has a similar ending. I may have the Mammoth finishing ahead of Dallas during the regular season, but I trust the Stars more once the games become a seven-game series. Colorado handles Anaheim, Edmonton gets through Minnesota, and suddenly the second round in the West is loaded.
Western Conference Second Round
Dallas over Colorado Edmonton over Vegas Dallas over Colorado is where my eventual Cup prediction starts getting serious.
The Stars have spent years proving they can win playoff rounds. At some point, perennial contention either turns into a championship or becomes the story itself, and I think this is the season where Dallas finally gets through the teams that have kept that window from producing a Cup.
Edmonton gets through Vegas on the other side and returns to the Western Conference Final.
Western Conference Final
Dallas over Edmonton This is where I have the Stars finally finishing the job in the West.
Edmonton remains good enough through the Babcock experiment that I have them winning the Pacific and reaching another conference final, but Dallas is my pick to come through it and get another opportunity to turn years of contention into something tangible.
Stanley Cup Final
Dallas Stars over Carolina Hurricanes in seven games I have spent enough years looking at Dallas as one of the teams capable of winning the Stanley Cup that eventually you have to either stop believing in the core or pick the year when they actually do it.
I'm picking this one.
The Stars have been living in the territory every contender wants to reach until it stays there too long: consistently good enough to believe a championship is coming, repeatedly deep enough into the playoffs to see how close it is, and still without the Stanley Cup to show for any of it.
I don't think they run through Carolina. I think this stays tight until the end, reaches Game 7 and gives Dallas one final game to decide whether this era is remembered as a very good team that was always around or one that eventually finished the job.
I'm taking the Stars.
I'm less interested in forcing a Conn Smythe prediction because there are too many plausible versions of a Dallas championship. Jake Oettinger could put together a dominant run or simply take over the Final and win it that way. Mikko Rantanen or Jason Robertson could have a huge Final and benefit from the natural recency bias that comes with the voting. Miro Heiskanen or Thomas Harley could just as easily have one of those playoff runs from the blue line where it becomes impossible to give the trophy to anyone else.
I don't know which version happens, I just think Dallas wins the Stanley Cup.
Award Predictions
Hart Trophy: Macklin Celebrini
If you're wondering how serious I am about San Jose finishing third in the Pacific, this is probably the answer.
I'm taking Macklin Celebrini to win the Hart, with the important qualifier that the Sharks actually have to make the jump I'm predicting for this to happen. If San Jose reaches the playoffs and Celebrini produces the type of season I think he can, the combination of individual production and how much his team has improved around him should give him an incredibly strong MVP case.
There will probably be players with similarly ridiculous numbers. Connor McDavid may very well have better ones. But if Celebrini becomes the face of one of the league's biggest year-overyear improvements, I think that will matter to media in the voting.
Art Ross Trophy: Connor McDavid
This one requires considerably less explanation. I'm taking McDavid to lead the league in points.
Rocket Richard Trophy: Connor McDavid
The more interesting part is that I also have him leading the league in goals.
There are plenty of safer choices if you're looking at pure goal scoring, but I'm betting on a season where McDavid doesn't just reclaim the scoring lead but ends up taking both major offensive titles.
Norris Trophy: Cale Makar
I'm taking Cale Makar to win the Norris again and re-establish himself as the standard at the position.
There will always be a handful of defensemen with legitimate cases by the end of the season, and the way the award gets discussed can change dramatically depending on point totals, team success and whatever defensive narrative develops around the leading candidates. My starting point remains pretty simple: when Makar is at his best, I still think he's the best defenseman in hockey.
I'm betting on the voting coming back around to that.
Vezina Trophy: Logan Thompson
This prediction connects directly to having Washington second in the Metropolitan.
I think the Capitals have a big year, and I'm taking Logan Thompson to be one of the biggest reasons why. If Washington spends the season near the top of the Metro and Thompson puts up the kind of numbers that should accompany that, I think he has a very realistic path to winning the Vezina.
There is one enormous conditional prediction attached to this.
If Connor Hellebuyck gets traded to Carolina, throw this pick out.
Putting Hellebuyck behind that Hurricanes team could create the kind of win-loss record that becomes almost impossible for voters to ignore, particularly if Carolina performs the way I expect. Unless that happens, Thompson is my pick.
Calder Trophy: Gavin McKenna
I'm taking Gavin McKenna to win the Calder immediately.
There will be plenty of attention on him regardless, but I'm betting on him being good enough right away to justify it.
Selke Trophy: Aleksander Barkov
I'm going right back to Aleksander Barkov in his first season back.
There may be an understandable tendency to expect some adjustment after missing that much time, but if Barkov is healthy, I don't think it takes long before he's back in the conversation as the best two-way forward in hockey. I'm predicting the voters put him right back at the top of it.
Jack Adams Award: Ryan Warsofsky
This one needs a distinction because the Jack Adams isn't necessarily a prediction of who I think will literally do the best coaching job in the NHL.
It's a prediction of who I think the media will vote for.
If San Jose does what I'm predicting and jumps into third in the Pacific while Celebrini puts together a Hart-calibre season, Ryan Warsofsky will have almost the perfect Jack Adams narrative. A young team takes a major step ahead of schedule, makes the playoffs and becomes one of the season's biggest positive surprises.
Whether that means Warsofsky objectively coached better than every other coach in the league is a different question.
I think it's the story voters will reward.
So, What Am I Going To Regret?
Probably plenty.
I have San Jose making the playoffs and Celebrini winning the Hart. I have Utah finishing second in a Central Division they have a legitimate chance to win. Toronto and the Rangers both miss the playoffs. McDavid wins the Art Ross and the Rocket. Logan Thompson wins the Vezina.
And after years of getting close enough that another deep playoff run almost feels routine, I finally have the Dallas Stars getting all the way there.
Dallas over Carolina in seven.
That's the prediction I'm putting on the record before the 2026-27 season gives me any chance to change my mind.